The campaign (and pundits) seem to think picking Palin will pick up disaffected Hillary voters. I doubt it. Let's think about who the Hillary voters are. First, some are ardent feminists, furious with the rejection of a highly qualified woman. It's unlikely that they'll go for a pro-life, relative3ly unqualified candidate. A second bloc are those who don't want to vote for black. They'll vote for McCain (or more accurately against Obama) in any case, regardless of the VP.
While I do think the Palin pick might help lure women, it's not the women all the pundits are talking about. The Palin pick will help attract moderate, young evangelical women, whom Obama had targeted, and it will insure that conservative evangelical women will show up at the polls and work hard. It might also with undecided, independent women who were not Hillary supporters and are still on the fence.
This article is cross-posted from Steve Waldman's blog at Beliefnet.