Last week, Donald Trump said that if evangelicals vote, he would win the 2016 presidential election. But while he commands a clear lead over Hillary Clinton for their support, surveys also show that American evangelicals are much more divided this year compared to previous elections.
With the election just days away, here are CT’s picks for the recent survey findings that most caught our eye on not only how evangelicals are voting in 2016, but why.
1) How Evangelicals (By Belief) Plan to Vote
Most surveys allow evangelicals to self-identify, which produces consistent majorities for Trump. But surveys that study evangelicals based on their beliefs and actions are much more mixed:
45% of Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Trump 31% plan to vote for Clinton 23% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or haven’t decided [Source: LifeWay Research #1 (links at bottom of page)]
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45% of born-again Americans plan to vote for Trump 37% plan to vote for Clinton 15% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or not vote at all
48% of born-again Americans who worship weekly plan to vote for Trump 34% plan to vote for Clinton 14% plan to vote for a third-party candidate, or not vote at all [Reuters #2]
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4 in 10 evangelicals are reluctant to vote for either Trump or Clinton [Barna Group #3]
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2) How Evangelicals (By Race/Ethnicity) Plan to Vote
65% of white Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Trump 10% plan to vote for Clinton
62% of African/Hispanic/Asian Americans with evangelical beliefs plan to vote for Clinton 15% plan to vote for Trump
2 in 5 Americans with evangelical beliefs are African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, or another ethnic minority. [LifeWay Research #1]
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47% of Hispanic evangelicals support Clinton 34% support Trump [Pew Research Center #4]
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3) How Evangelical Pastors Plan to Vote
44% of evangelical pastors are undecided 38% plan to vote for Trump 9% plan to vote for Clinton 4% plan to vote for Gary Johnson 2% plan to not vote
Most likely to support Trump: 61% of Pentecostal pastors 50% of Church of Christ pastors 46% of Baptist pastors
Most likely to support Clinton: 50% of Presbyterian/Reformed pastors 44% of Methodist pastors
59% of evangelical pastors believe that Christians who vote their conscience will not all vote for the same candidate 63% believe that Christians are not obligated to vote for a candidate with a reasonable chance of winning [LifeWay Research #5]
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4) The Empathy Gap
47% of Protestants who support Clinton say they “have a hard time respecting” Trump supporters 42% of Protestants who support Trump find it hard to respect Clinton supporters
58% of all Clinton supporters say they “have a hard time respecting” Trump supporters 40% of all Trump supporters find it hard to respect Clinton supporters [Pew Research Center #6]
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5) Politics & Bedfellows
13% of self-identified white evangelicals have argued with their spouse about the election 87% have not
75% of self-identified white evangelical couples are voting for the same presidential candidate 6% are voting for different candidates
76% of couples who attend church weekly are voting for the same presidential candidate 69% of couples who rarely attend church are doing likewise
78% of Protestant men believe their household is voting for the same presidential candidate 66% of Protestant women believe likewise
69% of Catholic men believe their household is voting for the same candidate 76% of Catholic women believe likewise [Pew Research Center #7]
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6) Voting For Trump vs. Against Clinton
In October:
45% of white evangelical Trump supporters are voting FOR Trump 51% are voting AGAINST Clinton [Note: This matches the split among Trump supporters overall.]
37% of white mainline Trump supporters are voting FOR Trump 60% are voting AGAINST Clinton
49% of Catholic Trump supporters are voting FOR Trump 48% are voting AGAINST Clinton
62% of black Protestant Clinton supporters are voting FOR Clinton 36% are voting AGAINST Trump
57% of Protestant Clinton supporters are voting FOR Clinton 42% are voting AGAINST Trump
52% of white mainline Clinton supporters are voting FOR Clinton 45% are voting AGAINST Trump
56% of Catholic Clinton supporters are voting FOR Clinton 43% are voting AGAINST Trump [Pew Research Center #13]
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In June:
Among white evangelicals planning to vote for Trump: 38% said their vote was for Trump 57% said their vote was against Clinton
Among white evangelicals planning to vote for Clinton: 35% said their vote was for Clinton 59% said their vote was against Trump
Among white evangelical weekly church attenders planning to vote for Trump: 44% support him strongly 53% support him not strongly
Among white evangelical weekly church attenders planning to vote for Clinton: 25% support her strongly 75% support her not strongly [Pew Research Center #8]
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Among born-against Christians who support Trump: 26% are voting for Trump 41% are voting against Clinton
Among born-again Christians who support Clinton: 43% are voting for Clinton 32% are voting against Trump [Barna Group #9]
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7) How Evangelicals Feel About Trump
41% of all white evangelicals say Trump is “a good role model” 55% of white evangelicals who support Trump say the same
55% of all white evangelicals say Trump is “hard to like” 46% of white evangelicals who support Trump say the same
67% of all white evangelicals say Trump is honest 81% of white evangelicals who support Trump say the same
58% of all white evangelicals say Trump is well-qualified 77% of white evangelicals who support Trump say the same
For comparison, among black Protestants (two-thirds of whom are evangelicals, according to Pew):
8% of black Protestants say Trump is a good role model 77% say Trump is hard to like 5% say Trump is honest 6% say Trump is well-qualified [Pew Research Center #6]
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59% of registered voters think Trump has respect for evangelicals 51% think Clinton respects evangelicals also
81% of Clinton supporters think Clinton has respect for evangelicals 37% think Trump respects evangelicals also
85% of Trump supporters think Trump has respect for evangelicals 19% think Clinton respects evangelicals also [Pew Research Center #13]
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8) Does Trump’s Morality Matter to Evangelicals?
CT asked in 2011 whether marital infidelity should disqualify a candidate for public office. The US religious group that has shifted most since then: self-identified white evangelicals.
Q: Can elected officials behave ethically and fulfill their public duties even if they have committed immoral acts in their personal life?
30% of self-identified white evangelicals said yes in 2011 72% said yes in 2016 [PRRI/Brookings #10]
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56% of white evangelicals are less likely to vote for someone who had an affair 42% don’t care [Pew Research Center #11]
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44% of self-identified white evangelicals think Trump has strong moral character 49% think Trump does not
18% of white evangelicals think Clinton has strong moral character 79% think Clinton does not [Washington Post/ABC News #12]
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51% of all white evangelicals say Trump is moral 68% of white evangelicals who support Trump say the same 12% of black Protestants say the same [Pew Research Center #6]
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9) Does Trump’s Faith Matter to Evangelicals?
Q: Is it very important for a presidential candidate to have strong religious beliefs?
49% of self-identified white evangelicals said yes in 2016 64% said yes in 2011 [PRRI/Brookings #10]
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83% of white evangelicals want their presidential candidate to share their religious faith 72% of black Protestants say the same
49% of white evangelicals think Trump is religious 44% think Trump is not religious [Pew Research Center #11]
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15% of born-again Christians view Trump as “authentically Christian” 13% view Clinton the same way 4% said they are equally “authentically Christian” 48% said neither is an authentic Christian 20% said they didn’t know [Barna Group #9]
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10) Which Issues Matter Most to Evangelicals
Evangelical pastors are much more concerned about the personal character of Trump and Clinton, as well as their Supreme Court picks, than the people in their pews.
Among evangelical pastors: 27% said personal character was the most important issue to vote on 20% said Supreme Court nominees 12% said religious freedom 10% said abortion 6% said the economy 5% said national security 2% said immigration 13% said none of these
Among Americans with evangelical beliefs: 26% said improving the economy was the most important issue to vote on 22% said national security 15% said personal character 10% said Supreme Court nominees 7% said religious freedom 5% said immigration 4% said abortion
44% of evangelical pastors (a plurality) were undecided on Trump vs. Clinton 36% said personal character would be the top determiner of their vote 14% said Supreme Court nominees [LifeWay Research #1 and #5]
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Abortion ranks low among white evangelicals’ top election concerns (% saying each issue is “very important” in deciding who to vote for):
89% terrorism 87% economy 78% immigration 78% foreign policy 77% gun policy 70% Supreme Court appointments 70% health care 70% Social Security 62% trade policy 59% education 52% abortion 51% treatment of racial/ethnic minorities 34% environment 29% treatment of LGBT community [Pew Research Center #8]
Sources:
1. LifeWay Research survey of 1,000 respondents from Sept. 27 to Oct. 1 (evangelicals based on four core beliefs)
2. Reuters polling 5-day rolling average as of Nov. 1 (respondents self-identified as “born again” and self-reported worship attendance from 2-3 times per month to more than weekly)
3. Barna Group survey of 1,023 adults from Sept. 12-19 (evangelicals defined by eight conditions)
4. Pew Research Center survey of 1,500 adults from Aug. 23 to Sept. 21 (evangelicals based on denomination or self-identity)
5. LifeWay Research survey of 1,000 Protestant senior pastors from Aug. 22 to Sept. 16
6. Pew Research Center survey from Oct. 20-25
7. Pew Research Center survey of 4,000 respondents from Sept. 27 and Oct. 10
8. Pew Research Center survey of 1,655 voters from June 15-26
9. Barna Group survey of 1,023 adults from Sept. 12-19 (evangelicals defined by eight conditions)
10. PRRI/Brookings survey from October
11. Pew Research Center survey from Jan. 7-14
12. Washington Post-ABC News poll from Oct. 10-13
13. Pew Research Center survey from Oct. 20-25
[Donald Trump image courtesy of Gage Skidmore – Flickr]
[Hillary Clinton image courtesy of Gage Skidmore – Flickr]
