One can surely debate the value of identity politics. But in some sense it's natural that a South filled with evangelicals voted for one of their own in Mike Huckabee. Still, some see more nefarious trends at work. John O'Sullivan over at National Review's Corner suggested that these evangelicals just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Mormon. "My southern belle wife always warned that many evangelicals would vote for anyone but a Mormon," O'Sullivan wrote. "I was skeptical - and we don't yet have the exit poll breakdowns on that kind of question - but it looks as if something like that may be at work."
Will we have any data on this topic? I wonder how that question would have to be worded. In the meantime, is it really plausible to suggest that evangelical Republicans would go out of their way to vote against a candidate who's not even the frontrunner? Especially if they have policy and affinity reasons to vote for Huckabee?